Handicapping analysis of Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 6) [Breeders’ Cup]

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The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is a one mile turf race for two-year-old fillies. The purse is $1,000,000. This is race 6 on the program, but the second Breeders’ Cup race on Friday’s Card. Post time is 4:50 p.m.

I’m really looking forward to this race. This is a quality-packed field of two-year-olds. Although there is a very legitimate favorite here, Elusive Kate, if you can find a way to go against her, there is money to be made on this race.

The European runner, Elusive Kate, is the 2-1 morning line favorite with a win record of four from five starts. She has won her last three races on the turf courses in France; one a Group 1 and one a Group 3. These European Group 1 races are generally tougher than our Grade 1s. She’s an impressive filly and we’re lucky to have the opportunity to see her at Churchill. Even at a short price, Elusive Kate must be included in your wagers.

To go up against Elusive Kate, I really like Stephanie’s Kitten. She’s a Kitten’s Joy filly owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey. She won the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland last month. I happened to be at the barn earlier this week when Stephanie’s Kitten received a breathing treatment. This was a maintenance treatment to keep her on top of her game. According to Wayne Catalano’s Assistant Trainer Kelsey Danner, Stephanie’s Kitten is doing really well and has matured a lot lately. She said she’s also become a bit full of herself. I like that kind of attitude in a horse. I think if anyone can take down Elusive Kate, Stephanie’s Kitten can.

For a longshot play, I find 30-1 Dear Lavinia very interesting. Celebrity chef Bobby Flay recently purchased this European filly. Flay won this race last year with More Than Real. Dear Lavinia has won three of five starts and has been in the money in all. She’s worth a play.

I also like Hard Not to Like with a morning line of 15-1. Jockey Mike Smith rides for trainer Gail Cox. She has three wins from four starts and tends to prefer a front running style. The turf here at Churchill Downs is rated yielding today, which should favor front runners.

I may just do a super with these four or key them off of Elusive Kate.  

Photo: Courtesy Breeders’ Cup

About Jessie Oswald
I'm a lifetime Louisville resident with a passion for horse racing. When I'm not working as an immigration paralegal or taking care of my family, I follow Thoroughbred racing and love to share the excitement and beauty of the sport with anyone willing to learn!
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