Kentucky Oaks 140 – handicapping analysis

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The premiere event for 3-year-old fillies, the $1,000,000 Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), runs Friday, May 2 at Churchill Downs. A field of 13 was drawn for the 1 1/8 mile route over the Churchill dirt.

Headlining the field is Steve Asmussen’s Fair Ground Oaks (G2) and Rachel Alexandra (G3) winner, Untapable. This daughter of Tapit started her career strong, breaking her maiden at first asking and taking the Grade 2 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs in her second start. Although she was eased in the November Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and beaten 68 lengths, she rebounded in the December Hollywood Starlet (G1) to finish third, beaten only 2 ¾ lengths. Since the first of the year, she’s looked like a lady on a mission, besting her competition by a combined 17 ¼ lengths in two starts.

Untapable stands out in this field as the well-deserving favorite with a morning-line of 4-5. However, she’ll have to overcome the far outside post and her early running style means she’ll need to exert her energy early to get to that lead. Jockey Rosie Napravnik, who won the 2012 edition of the Kentucky Oaks with Believe You Can, has the mount.

Todd Pletcher’s My Miss Sophia is lightly raced, but very impressive. In only her third start, she won the Grade 2 Gazelle by 7 ¼ lengths in hand, no whip. She earned a Brisnet speed figure of 97 in the 1 1/8 mile race, which is the best among this field at the distance. She seems to get better and better the more she does. Along with Untapable, she likes the lead and will have jockey Javier Castellano trying to get there from post 11.

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