Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
The guy I know liked the 5, Grace Hall, a closer who's 3-0, including a Grade I. Then he had to get off the phone because he was at the Sizzler and his steak arrived. Here I go again on my own. Goin' down the only road I've ever known. Like a drifter I was born to bet alone. And I've made up my mind...
The 2, Candrea, came in second her last time out, losing by just 1/2 lengths in a Grade I to Weemissfrankie, who's also in this race (11). And she's going at 10-1.
Areola Aurelia, the 9, is a very good horse: 3-0, fast speed figures. Odds are 5-2 now though.
My credit card statement just arrived via email, so I'm going light on this one. Picks after I balance my account...
Someone left Bod Man spray deodorant on the counter of Churchill Downs's sixth floor men's room. Score
$1 trifecta 9 / 2, 5, 10, 11 / 2, 5, 10, 11. Cost of wager: $12.
WINNER! (I don't all-caps lightly.) Returned $50.60. Louisville.com turf writers stunned. Good riddance guy I know!
Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$5.40
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
I like a lot of horses in this 12-horse field, too many to bet on with an exotic. And there are too many Europeans: judging the ability of a European horse is like judging the sexuality of a European man. There's a lot of ambiguity there.
The 1, Dubawi Heights, has been bet down from a 8-1 morning line to 12-1. That gambling behavior makes no sense to this handicapper, who's 1-1 in his last one race.
The 10, Distorted Legacy had a great speed ranting her last time out when she won a Grade I. And there's the possibility of more improvement as it'll be her second race back after a layoff. And there's that bullet workout of hers on Oct. 29.
Wagers after I clean the Cheetos residue off my ascot...
$2 win, place, show on 1, 10. Cost of wager: $12.
Dubwai Heights lead most of the race—until the final straightaway. Distorted got nipped by a nose for third place. A good pick, just not a winning one.
Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$17.40
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
I'm having a hard time finding any bets worth making here. I like the 3, It's Tricky, currently at 9-2; 6, Royal Delta, 8-5; 7, Ultra Bend, 6-1; and 8, Plum Pretty (the defending Kentucky Oaks champ), 3-1.
Normally I'd walk away from this race, but today isn't a normal day. It's the first day of Breeders' Crap and—holy crap—I'm just one winning bet away from being up on the day.
Ultra Bend intrigues me the most: she put a 104 speed rating her last time out and that was her first race back after a break, meaning she's likely to improve even more. And she has the best payout of any of the horses I like.
Satan's Quick Chick (4) is 50-1, but placed third in her last race, a Grade I, not too far behind Royal Delta...
Pick after I pick this popcorn kernel out of my teeth...
$3 win, place, show on 4. $2 win, place, show on 7. Cost of wager: $15.
Near the back for most of the race, Ultra Bend came roaring back down the straight away...to finish fourth by a nose. Satan's Quick Chick? I might as well have just had a concessionaire break a ten spot, tipped him a buck for the effort and flushed the other nine bucks down the toilet.
Should've just stopped.
Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$32.40
The races start again tomorrow at 1:20 p.m. EDT. So tonight I go home and shake, either from gambling withdrawal or the cocaine party I'm going to throw myself in honor of my one winning bet today. Giddyup.
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