Our editor who stinks at handicapping shares his Breeders' Cup picks [Breeders' Cup]

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Zach Everson

 

Breeders' Cup Classic

You know, f it. Fourteen races, 1 win. At the draw on Tuesday, I got goosebumps when I heard them call Rattlesnake Bridge with Calvin Borel riding. Whatever other strategies I've used this weekend haven't done a GD thing. A morning line 30-1, the Churchill Crowd, has is its custom, has bet down the Borel mount to 18-1. Borel's won three of the past six Derbys and was gracious when I interviewed him on the backside this spring (namedrop, for a Wall Street Journal article).

Pick coming after I second guess myself for a 15th time...

$3 win, place, show on 7. Cost of wager: $12

Always bet the horse, not the jockey.

Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$112.40

 

[Sentimental recap goes here]

A disclaimer you got upfront—and should be more evident now—I'm not much of a gambler.  But if you've got to throw $112.40 away, you'll be hard pressed to find a more enjoyable way to do so than at the track, specifically Churchill Downs.

Churchill Downs

 

 

 

 

But wait...there's one more race today...

Chilukki Grade II stakes

Louisville.com's Jessie Oswald is leaving the track ahead today, so I'm following her advice.

$2 win, place, show on 3. Cost of wager: $6

Ca-ching! Winner!

Breeders' Cup is over, so I start anew.

Post-Breeders' Cup total: $13.40

 

Thanks to Brisnet for providing me with the Past Performances. Don't blame them for my performance.

Lead photo: Of Zach Everson, courtesy of one-time girlfriend of Zach Everson. All other photos, Zach Everson.

For some of you, a guy who's 8 for 72 in cashing winning tickets this year and down only $303.07 might just be worth listening to.

Sentinent Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile

This guy I know who wins at the track said to bet a trifecta with 6 to win (it's a good horse), 1 and 7 to place (1 ran well in the slop before and 7 had a good workout and has a good pedigree) and all for show (a lock). So...

$1 trifecta 6/1,7/1-9. Cost of wager: $14.

Damnit. The 6 horse won as expected, but a good charge by the 5, Shumoos, bumped the 7 down to third on the homestretch and my winnings down to nil. The 1 placed fourth. A good bet, albeit not a winning one.

Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$14


Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

There's a joke to be made about juvenile fillies and turf. But this is a family website, so I'm not going to make it.

This race has 14 ponies in it. That's a lot of ponies, and it means keying an exotic bet is going to beyond my budget (doesn't writing "keying an exotic bet" make me sound like I know what the hell I'm talking about?). That guy I know liked the 3, 5, 9, 10, and 14 and kinda liked the 4 and 6. Yep, that's half the field. (Picking a 2-year-old horse can be tough because they haven't raced much.)

The odds are low on the 5, 10, and 14.

The 3, Up, is running with Lasix for the fist time, which is supposed to make him ponies run faster. And she's got a good sire, trainer and won her only start. And she's at 22-1 right now, so that's nice.

The 6, Sweet Cat, has gotten faster each time out, coming in second in a Grade II stakes race her last time out. Her current odds are 11-1.

The 9, Pure Gossip, won her last time out too, in a Grade III. The race was 1 1/16 and she done exploded, winning by 6 1/2 lengths. That's good. She's at 14-1. She also kicked butt on a soft track and the turf right now is just good.

Bet coming after I visit the toilet...

$2 win, place, show on 3, 9. Cost of wager: $12

The Up came in fourth, Pure Gossip worse than that. The 6, Sweet Cat, of course showed.

Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$26

 

Sentinent Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

Fillies and mares. Together. It's like those videos you stream, where the mature woman teaches the one who just turned 18 things, wonderful things, about her body. Or not.

That guy I know likes the 3, Turbulent Descent. With odds of 2-1 now though, so do lots of people. He also liked Switch, who's 5-5 in hitting the board in races of this distance (7 furlongs). Fur.

His two long shots were the 9, Golden Mystery, and 10, Tamarind Hall. I don't remember why he liked Golden Mystery, possibly because he used a word I didn't understand and that threw me.

Tamarind Hall had a bullet workout on Oct. 26 and hit the board in her last four races, three of which were graded. She's coming off a layoff, but the last time she did that, she placed in a Grade III.

Bet coming after I refill my Diet Mountain Dew...

$0.50 trifecta box, 3, 6, 9, 12; $2 win, place, show on 10. Cost of wagers: $18

Taramind Hall was in first down the stretch when it looked like she got shot. Why isn't there an investigation? Where are the police? Only the 6 in my trifecta hit the board. No money for me.

Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$44

 

 

 

Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

The guy I know liked the 5, Grace Hall, a closer who's 3-0, including a Grade I. Then he had to get off the phone because he was at the Sizzler and his steak arrived. Here I go again on my own.  Goin' down the only road I've ever known. Like a drifter I was born to bet alone. And I've made up my mind...

The 2, Candrea, came in second her last time out, losing by just 1/2 lengths in a Grade I to Weemissfrankie, who's also in this race (11). And she's going at 10-1.

My Miss Areola Aurelia, the 9, is a very good horse: 3-0, fast speed figures. Odds are 5-2 now though.

My credit card statement just arrived via email, so I'm going light on this one. Picks after I balance my account...

Someone left Bod Man spray deodorant on the counter of Churchill Downs's sixth floor men's room. Score

$1 trifecta 9 / 2, 5, 10, 11 / 2, 5, 10, 11.  Cost of wager: $12.

WINNER! (I don't all-caps lightly.) Returned $50.60. Louisville.com turf writers stunned. Good riddance guy I know!

Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$5.40

 

Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

I like a lot of horses in this 12-horse field, too many to bet on with an exotic. And there are too many Europeans: judging the ability of a European horse is like judging the sexuality of a European man. There's a lot of ambiguity there.

The 1, Dubawi Heights, has been bet down from a 8-1 morning line to 12-1. That gambling behavior makes no sense to this handicapper, who's 1-1 in his last one race.

The 10, Distorted Legacy had a great speed ranting her last time out when she won a Grade I. And there's the possibility of more improvement as it'll be her second race back after a layoff. And there's that bullet workout of hers on Oct. 29.

Wagers after I clean the Cheetos residue off my ascot...

$2 win, place, show on 1, 10.  Cost of wager: $12.

Dubwai Heights lead most of the race—until the final straightaway. Distorted got nipped by a nose for third place. A good pick, just not a winning one.

Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$17.40

 

Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

I'm having a hard time finding any bets worth making here. I like the 3, It's Tricky, currently at 9-2; 6, Royal Delta, 8-5; 7, Ultra Bend, 6-1; and 8, Plum Pretty (the defending Kentucky Oaks champ), 3-1.

Normally I'd walk away from this race, but today isn't a normal day. It's the first day of Breeders' Crap and—holy crap—I'm just one winning bet away from being up on the day.

Ultra Bend intrigues me the most: she put a 104 speed rating her last time out and that was her first race back after a break, meaning she's likely to improve even more. And she has the best payout of any of the horses I like.

Satan's Quick Chick (4) is 50-1, but placed third in her last race, a Grade I, not too far behind Royal Delta...

Pick after I pick this popcorn kernel out of my teeth...

$3 win, place, show on 4. $2 win, place, show on 7. Cost of wager: $15.

Near the back for most of the race, Ultra Bend came roaring back down the straight away...to finish fourth by a nose. Satan's Quick Chick? I might as well have just had a concessionaire break a ten spot, tipped him a buck for the effort and flushed the other nine bucks down the toilet.

Should've just stopped.

Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$32.40

The races start again tomorrow at 1:20 p.m. EDT. So tonight I go home and shake, either from gambling withdrawal or the cocaine party I'm going to throw myself in honor of my one winning bet today. Giddyup.

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