Breeders' Cup Marathon
The coke party was a bust. I went home, put on my PJs and sat in front of the TV with my wife talking about how much I missed spending time with my daughter.
You know what's BS? That for a horse, 1 3/4 miles is a marathon, while it's 26 miles and 385 yards for humans. I've done 1.75 miles before; I'm going to tell everyone I'm a marathoner (although a white oval sticker on my car saying 1.75 isn't going to look as obnoxious one saying 26—I hate people have those stickers).
As for the ponies in this one...Birdrun, the , had a 105 speed figure his last time out in a 1 1/4 Grade I. And it was his first time out after a layoff, so there's a good shot at improvement. It's expected every other better will reach that conclusion too, which is why the morning line is 7/2.
The 2, Baryshinkov, in four of his last five races, all graded stakes races. But the 5 year old didn't win any of them, none of them were longer than 1 1/8 miles and his speed figures have been down of late.
Harrison's Cave (7), from Ireland, is running with Lasex for the first time (the savvy reader will remember from yesterday that that's supposed to make them faster). The 3-year-old colt has never entered a graded stakes race before, but at a 30-1 morning line, he looks like the only chance to make some money on this race.
(Speaking of Harrison's Cave, anyone else see the story about the Oregon woman who—inspired by Harrison Ford's character in the Empire Strikes Back—posed naked inside her dead horse? She is not in the running for horse owner of the year.)
The 9, Cease, doesn't ahve much experience in graded stakes races, coming in third in his only one, grade II. That was hus last time out though and it was for 1 1/4 miles.
And holy crap, a Calvin Borrel horse has been bet up at Churchill Downs (from 3-1 to 5-1). It's one of just two mounts for Calvin in the Breeders' Cup. The horse-jockey combo finished a fast fifth in a packed Jockey Gold Up their last time out. And as this race is its second after a layoff, it's set to improve.
I'm going to stop this analysis now, as it's become a marathon onto itself. Pick soon...
$0.50 trifecta box 1, 7, 9, 11. Cost of bet: $12
Hoping for the best from that 11 horse, who needed a little help leaving the track.
Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$44.40
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
I scored an invite to the Grey Goose box, so I'm too busy enjoying a Grey Goose Zenyatta to put any thoughts into this one, so you're on your own. Drink up.
Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$44.40
Sentinent Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint
Nine horses in this field, means its a good chance to break out the key. Words odds though are 19-1 (on the 19, Apriority).
Euroears, 1, had a slow race his last tme out, but was checked at the start and has since had two straight bullet workouts.
The 2, Giant Ryan, won his last race, a Grade I, and should improve after a layoff.
The 5, Jackson Bend, doesn't look like he's going to get bent over here, having posted speed ratings close to or better tan the average winning speed for this race.
No time for more analysis, they're in the gate, need to bet...
$1.50 trifecta 5 / 1, 2, 6, 8 / 1, 2, 6, 8. Cost of bet: $12
Gambling tip: Do not rush your bets.
Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$56.40
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
Lots of ponies look good in this one. Regally Ready (8) and Caracortado (13) appear to be locks to win. but the odds aren't great. I like the 25-1 Rapport (9) though: great works and set to improve in his second race back after a layoff.
$2 win, place, show on 9: Cost of bet: $6
Kay-rap. Rapport went out fast which is what you want in a sprint, but, as seems to be the case often with my ponies, looks like he got shot down the homestretch.
Profit/loss for the Breeders' Cup: -$62.40
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Nine-horse field in this one with a co-favorites coming in off the inside spots. The Factor (1, 7-2 odds) appears to have struggled of late, weakening in his last race, which was just six furlongs. His last time running a mile or more was in April, in what was his worst race since his first.
The Dale Roman-trained Shackleford (2), however, looks like a good bet: bullet workout on Oct. 29, and a second in his last race, the 1 1/16-mile Indiana Derby. He also did well at this track in the Derby, placing fourth in the 19-horse field. And everytime I bet against him, he wins.
Wilburn (5) has won his last three races, although only one was a graded stakes race, although in that race he beat Shackleford (see previous paragraph).
Jeresy Town (7) has hit the board in every race he's entered, which includes eight straight graded stakes races.
Caleb's Posse (8) beat Uncle Mo back in August. His last race wasn't as fast, but still.
The 9, Trappe Shot, also has put up some impressive speed figures. of late.
So, yep, it's a nine-horse race and I like five of them...
The wager (no suspense, I'm going back to the Grey Goose suite):
$0.50 trifecta 2, 5 / 2, 5, 8, 9 / 1, 2, 5-9. Cost of bet: $15
Gambling tip: When I bet on Shackleford he loses, when I don't bet on Shackleford, he wins. I just bet on Shacklefor
Thanks to Brisnet for providing me with the Past Performances. Don't blame them for my performance.
Photo: Of Zach Everson, courtesy of one-time girlfriend of Zach Everson.
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