Who's your mudder? [Kentucky Derby]

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By Josh Cook

In one memorable 'Seinfeld' episode Kramer overhears two men on the subway talking about a horse race later that day

"This horse loves the slop, it's in his bloodlines. His father was a mudder. His mother was a mudder," one man says to the other.

"His mother was a mudder?" the other man responds.

In the end the eavesdropping works well for Kramer, who cashes a big ticket. Can you have similiar luck today at Churchill Downs, where "mudder" will likely be the word of the day especially in the 136th Kentucky Derby?

Maybe...if you follow my advice. 

A quick look at the brief history of these 3-year-olds shows that only a handful of horses have raced in, and done well, in the slop.

Eleven of the 20 horses have never started on wet dirt. They are Lookin At Lucky, Ice Box, Noble's Promise, Line of David, American Lion, Make Music For Me, Paddy O'Prado, Conveyance, Jackson Bend, Awesome Act and Sidney's Candy. So bet those horses at your own risk.

Three other horses have one start on wet dirt without finishing in the money. They are Dean's Kitten, Dublin and Homeboykris. Bet those horses with caution.

That leaves six horses who have a good history on the slop. They are current co-favorite, the filly and four other horses that could provide a good payday. And, ironically, one thing that four of those have in common is their trainer - Todd Pletcher.

Super Saver, who is currently 8-1 along with Lookin At Lucky, has a first and a second in two starts on wet dirt. And those were the first two starts of his career, in August and September of 2009.

The lone filly in the Derby, Devil May Care, has one lifetime start on the wet dirt and it was a victory. But like Super Saver, it also came in the horse's first race in August of last year.

Then there's a quartet of potential Derby darkhorses - Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Backtalk and Discreetly Mine.

Stately Victor, the Grade I Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner, has a second-place in his lone start on wet dirt.

Mission Impazible, the Grade II Louisiana Derby winner, has a second and third in his two starts on wet dirt. And one of those came at Churchill Downs in April of last year.

Then there's Backtalk, the son of Smarty Jones, who is the most successful horse on wet dirt in the field. He is 2-for-2 in races on sloppy tracks, including his first race, which was at Churchill Downs in June of last year.

Finally there's the longest shot in the field, Discreetly Mine. He has two starts on wet dirt and one victory, which came earlier this year.

So who's your mudder?

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