[1] Kentucky Derby 137 [3] runs later today at Churchill Downs: here are the horses, jockeys and trainers, and morning line odds. But most importantly, here's my analysis. Why should you listen to me? Because I've made 14 bets in 2011 and won two of them.
Full disclosure: I have no idea what I'm doing when it comes to handicapping. Bet at your own risk.
Select a link for more information on the horse.
1. Archarcharch [4], Court/Fires, 10-1
He's peaking, has won three stakes races (including one over Derby horse Nehro) and is with his regular jockey. He's also been having great workouts. Negatives: spellchecking his name is a bitchbitchbitch.
Conclusion: I like this pony.
2. Brilliant Speed [5], Rosario/Albertrani, 30-1
He doesn't run well on dirt. The Kentucky Derby is run on dirt.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
3. Twice the Appeal [6], Borel/Bonde, 20-1
The two things that appeal to me (pun!) are that he's won three of his last four races and his jockey, Calvin [7]Bore [7]l, has won three of the last four Derbies. He's only race once in a graded stakes race, although he did win it.
Conclusion: I kind of like this pony.
4. Stay Thirsty [8], Dominguez/Pletcher, 20-1
According to today's Daily Racing Form, "He's has now run twice in Grade 1 route races and been beaten 14-plus and 16-plus lengths." I don't know what a "route race" is, but I do know that getting beaten by 14-plus and 16-plus lengths is not good.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
5. Decisive Moment [9], Clark/Arias, 30-1
He has not won a graded stakes race. The Derby demands major leaguers.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
6. Comma to the Top, [10] Valenzuela/P. Miller, 30-1
This horse is riding with its jockey for the first time and has never beat any of other Derby horses. Of course, the gelding's never competed against them.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
7. Pants On Fire [11], Napravnik/Breen, 20-1
He led three straight races and lost. We've got a name for that where I'm from. It's not "Derby winner."
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
8. Dialed In [12], Leparoux/Zito, 4-1
He's won three of his four races, coming in second in the other one. And he's with his usual jockey.
Conclusion: I like this pony.
9. Derby Kitten [13], Castellano/Maker, 30-1
According to today's Daily Racing Form, "he was beaten 27 1/2 lengths in his only race on dirt." According to me, "that sucks."
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
10. Twinspired [14], Smith/Maker, 30-1
He came in second and third in his last two races, but all three of the horses that beat him are in the Derby.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
11. Master of Hounds [15], Gomez/O'Brien, 30-1
This year he's competed in England, Ireland, Dubai and the United States. That's too much traveling.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
12. Santiva [16], Bridgmohan/Kenneally, 30-1
He's only one horse race, so he's not much better than me.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
13. Mucho Macho Man [17], Maragh/Ritvo, 12-1
Only once has he finished worse than second, although he has only one win. He also has experience racing in crowded fields. Furthermore his name reminds me of my favorite wrestler growing up.
Conclusion: I like this pony.
14. Shackleford [18], Castanon/Romans, 12-1
Dialed In is a favorite and Shackleford barely lost to him in the Florida Derby. He's hit the board in three of his last four races, although never beating a Derby winner. He also seems to be the sexy pick in the media center.
Conclusion: I like this pony.
15. Midnight Interlude [19], Espinoza/Baffert, 10-1
Daily Racing Form said, "The blunt truth is Midnight Interlude has minimal chance to win the Derby—a charitabe estimate is 3 percent." Let's go with that.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
16. Animal Kingdom [20], Velazquez/Motion, 30-1
While he beat two Derby horses his last time out (Twinspired and Decisive Moment), I don't like either of them. Plus, he's never raced on dirt and this race will be his first with this jockey.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
17. Soldat [21], A.Garcia/McLaughlin, 12-1
He's hit the board in seven of his last eight races, but lost to two Derby horses his last time out.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
18. Uncle Mo [22], Velazquez/Repole Stable, 9-2
Uncle Mo was scratched on Friday so you can't gamble on him (I found that out the hard way).
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
19. Nehro [23], Nakatani/Asmussen, 6-1
Lost by a neck to Archarcharch and Pants on Fire in his last two races, beating Mucho Macho Man in the latter.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.
20. Watch Me Go [24], Bejarano/O'Connell, 50-1
He's on the outside, has never raced against Derby competitors and is under a new-to-him jockey.
Conclusion: I do not like this pony.