I've been at Churchill Downs for the Breeders' Cup all weekend and I'm yet to make a bet (heck of the 21 races this weekend, I'll only have seen three of them). But I'm not going to miss the opportunity to watch the marquee race, the Breeders' Cup Classic, which posts at 6:45 p.m. Nor am I going to miss the opportunity to lose money on it.
Here are my entirely amateur and not to be used when coming up with your own bets thoughts on the field:
1 Quality Road: Seven wins in his last 10 races (and he placed and showed in the the other two)
2 Paddy O'Prado: Three wins and a show in his last four races, as well as experience running in a pressure race at Churchill
3 Haynesfield: He's beaten both Blame and Quality Road
4 First Dude: Just one win in his last 10 races, and a Sarah Palin reference to boot
5 Blame: Won six of his last seven, the only loss was to Haynesfield
6 Fly Down: Just one win in his last four races, although all of his last 10 races
7 Musket Man: Just one win in 2010, but raced at Churchill on Derby Day and placed
8 Zenyatta: No thoughts necessary (but in case you know less about horses than I do, I'l explain: her career record is 19-0).
9 Pleasant Prince:
10 Etched: A lot of wins, but I'm not familiar with his opponents
11 Espoir: He's from Japan and I don't know Japanese
12 Lookin At Lucky: Disappointed at Churchill in the Derby
I'm going with Quality Road, Blame and Zenyatta in an exacta box. As long as two of those three houses come in first and second (any order) I win. And I'm dropping $5 on Paddy O'Prado to win because I feel like losing more money.
Post-race update: The exacta box won. It was a $5 bet, so it cost me $30 (a three-horse exacta box is actually six seprate bets). And because the horses that won and placed, Blame and Zenyatta, were heavy favorites, the payoff wasn't great: $83. My wife won a $2 exacta, bringing in another $33 to our clan. So all told, we won $116—just enough to cover the babysitter.
Photo: Courtesy Breeders' Cup